Bookmakers: Biden remains the favorite in the US presidential election

The US presidential election has caused unprecedented interest this year, with voter turnout increasing severalfold compared with 2016. Although incumbent US President Donald Trump has been involved in endless scandals, he has managed to retain a loyal voter base. However, “Betsafe” experts believe that this time Democratic Party candidate Joe Biden has better chances of winning the election. On election day, bookmakers continued to assess the probability that Biden would become the next US president as early as 3 November at a convincing 65%.

The winner of the previous US election was determined by a narrow margin in several states in the American Midwest—Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa—as well as by the passivity of many Americans. Voter turnout has now increased considerably, and pre-election polls indicate that Trump can no longer be confident of victory in any state. Moreover, the electorally important states of Pennsylvania and Michigan are leaning in Biden’s favor. Meanwhile, in the “red states” of Florida and Texas, as well as in Arizona and North Carolina, the two candidates have so far received similar levels of voter support, making the race for the presidency particularly close. On election day, Trump needs victories in several of the so-called “swing states”, while Biden would need only a lead in some of them to win, which continues to make him the election favorite.

“As election day approached, Biden gradually took the lead. Nevertheless, despite expert opinions and opinion polls, a large proportion of US residents continue to believe in the incumbent president’s ability to retain his office. We expect the result to be decided only at the very last moment, as happened in the 2016 presidential election and during the Brexit vote, when the less likely outcome surprised the entire world,” comments “Betsafe” forecasting expert Valters Rozmanis.

Notably, the pandemic has also made participating in the election more challenging than before, making it especially important for the candidates to motivate their supporters to vote this year. Voters can cast their ballots before the official election date, and this year 82 million people have already voted early—significantly more than at the same point in 2016. However, even now, in the final days before the election, both candidates continue to campaign in key states—Florida, Minnesota and Wisconsin—in an effort to convince voters that they are suited to the responsible office.