Bookmakers’ prediction: Biden has better chances of winning the US presidential election
Both the pandemic and the economic recession that followed, as well as the scandals surrounding the current US President Donald Trump and his controversial personality, have made this US presidential election arouse even more passions than before. Although Trump still has a loyal voter base in the US, Democratic Party candidate Joe Biden has better chances of winning the election, according to Betsafe. Bookmakers currently estimate the probability that Biden will become the next US president as early as November at 66%.
In the previous election in 2016, Trump’s victory was secured by a narrow margin in several states in the northeastern United States—Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa—as well as by the passivity of many Americans and their unwillingness to vote for one candidate or the other. Voter polls currently indicate that Trump cannot be certain of victory in any state. Moreover, the electorally important states of Pennsylvania and Michigan are leaning in Biden’s favor, making the battle for the presidency particularly close.
The polls also indicate that Biden and Trump have comparable levels of support in the two most important “red” states—Florida and Texas—as well as in Arizona and North Carolina. Losing even one of these states would significantly reduce Trump’s chances of being re-elected. Consequently, Trump needs victories in several of the so-called “swing” states, while Biden would need to secure a lead in only a few of them. Overall, this makes Biden the nationwide favorite in the election; he has promised the people to end the “era of darkness” begun by Trump.
However, Betsafe recalls that polls before the previous presidential election also indicated that the Democratic Party candidate was the most likely to win, but the result was different. Therefore, polls cannot be relied upon completely. In addition, three weeks remain until the election, during which a series of scandals and twists may occur that could influence the votes of still-undecided voters. Bookmakers point out that each candidate’s ability to motivate their supporters to participate in the election will be decisive. Due to the pandemic, this will be more challenging in the US than before, although voting is already possible through early voting and remote voting by mail.
“Since the US presidential election is a process whose outcome is directly linked to the actions of the majority of society, predicting the result is most difficult in such cases, as many eligible voters make their choice only at the very last moment. This is also demonstrated by bookmakers’ predictions in 2016—just days before the election, Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton was assigned a low probability of 20%. This time, both candidates are very active on social media and may still change voters’ opinions repeatedly through their actions and statements. The spread of Covid-19 may also bring various changes to the election results. However, based on the current probability coefficient, we have reason to believe that the present situation nevertheless favors Biden, or a ‘new beginning’,” comments Walter Rozmanis, Betsafe’s prediction expert.
Trump’s refusal to participate in the virtual debate has also provoked highly contradictory reactions. After the election, Trump’s response to the results could trigger a new wave of intrigue in the US if he is voted out of the White House. Trump has already expressed the view that the large proportion of votes sent by mail creates risks of fraud, and therefore he reserves the possibility of refusing to recognize the election results as legitimate.
Statistics show that more than 6.6 million Americans have already participated in the presidential election, which is ten times the number at the same point before the 2016 election. This indicates that voter turnout will most likely reach a new record this year, and that an even larger share of the public worldwide than ever before will await the outcome.
