Bookmakers’ prediction: How long will Levits’s New Year’s Eve address be, and what colour tie will the president choose this time?

Every year at the turn of the year, Latvia’s highest-ranking officials address the country’s residents on television, including the President of Latvia, whose speech is an almost indispensable part of welcoming the New Year and is watched by young and old alike. “Betsafe” bookmakers’ predictions about the length of the president’s New Year’s Eve address and the colour of his chosen tie have now also become an end-of-year tradition. This year, experts are also assessing whether Egils Levits’s speech will be longer than the address by controversial Saeima deputy Aldis Gobzems to his followers on social media.

The most popular of “Betsafe”’s predictions from year to year concerns the colour of the President of Latvia’s tie on New Year’s Eve. Diplomatic protocol stipulates that the most appropriate tie colour for the President in a festive address is red or burgundy, and in most cases one of these colours, in various shades, is indeed worn. However, there have also been instances when a different choice was made—for example, when Raimonds Vējonis demonstrated his party affiliation in his first address in 2015 by appearing in a green tie. Egils Levits, meanwhile, often prefers a bow tie, which he also wore at his inauguration ceremony. Nevertheless, despite all the exceptions, experts’ predictions give a 70% probability that diplomatic protocol will be observed this time and that a red tie will be chosen for the formal address. A blue or black tie is also mentioned as another possible favourite, with each assigned a 10% probability.

Each year, predictions are also made about the length of the president’s New Year’s address, which has varied from one president to the next, averaging between three and six minutes. For example, in 2016 Raimonds Vējonis was joined in his New Year’s Eve address by his wife, Iveta Vējone, making the speech longer, although it always remained within the three-and-a-half-minute range. By contrast, the addresses of former presidents Valdis Zatlers and Andris Bērziņš were once six and even nearly 11 minutes long, while Egils Levits spoke for slightly more than five minutes in his first New Year’s Eve address last year. Given that 2020 was filled with various unprecedented challenges throughout the world and that a state of emergency is currently in force in Latvia, it is predicted that Levits’s address could be even longer than in his first year as president. However, bookmakers are divided, and the probability that the address will exceed the five-and-a-half-minute mark is assessed at only 50%.

“This year, the statements by Saeima deputy Aldis Gobzems have caused a great deal of resonance on social media, and he too, like the President’s televised address, plans to deliver a New Year’s address, which he will publish on his social media accounts. Given A. Gobzems’s expressive nature, we are convinced that his speech will definitely be longer than the President’s address, assigning this a 77% probability. Every year, we also place bets on how many times the president will mention the word ‘Latvia’ in his address. As 2018 came to an end, Raimonds Vējonis used the word ‘Latvia’ four times in his address to the nation, while in his 2019 New Year’s Eve address Egils Levits mentioned Latvia five times. Thus, this year too, we expect Latvia to be mentioned at least five times at the turn of the year,” comments Valters Rozmanis, a “Betsafe” prediction expert.