Bookmakers Give Samanta Tīna Stable Odds of Reaching the Eurovision Final

Singer Samanta Tīna’s song “The Moon Is Rising” and its music video have attracted widespread attention since their release—within two weeks, they have already been viewed by more than 800,000 people on YouTube. They have also sparked active discussions on social media and in the media, as the colourful performance has not received an unequivocal response. And although contradictory opinions have been voiced in society about the Latvian finalist’s prospects on the big stage, “Betsafe” bookmakers currently assess Samanta Tīna’s chances of reaching the final of the international Eurovision Song Contest relatively highly, at 40%.

“There are 17 countries in our semi-final, and only three or four of them are among the top 10 favourites, while the others will perform in the second semi-final. In addition, Estonia is in our semi-final, and it could traditionally vote for Latvia. Samanta’s vocals are strong enough to win votes from the jury, but it must also be said that the song’s theme—women’s strength, rights and independence—is highly suited to the Eurovision Song Contest,” “Betsafe” predictions expert Valters Rozmanis commented on Samanta Tīna’s chances of reaching the final, adding that her song currently has a 12% chance of being among the top 10 songs in the final, which is not impossible.

The song “The Moon Is Rising” and its music video were released for listeners’ evaluation on 12 March. The video, which also features members of the LGBT community, has received diametrically opposed reactions in Latvia. In a recent interview with Latvijas Televīzija, Samanta Tīna emphasised that the song’s message is about strong women and resembles what the singer wanted to express last year with “Still Breathing”, the song that won the Latvian national selection. The artist also noted that the song was not created with the Eurovision format in mind. “I am definitely not someone who creates something in an attempt to appeal to anyone,” Samanta Tīna stressed.

At the same time, sharp public discussions have also been sparked by an initiative submitted on the manabalss.lv website calling for Samanta Tīna not to participate in Eurovision this year with the song “The Moon Is Rising”. The initiative’s author, musician Kaspars Pudniks, believes that Tīna and LTV are “spitting in the soul of Latvian society and in the traditional values cultivated by the Latvian people over centuries”; moreover, the song was not chosen by a public vote, as it had been previously. However, this initiative has so far failed to attract a particularly large number of supporters and will most likely die down without leading to any further developments.

The semi-finals of the 65th Eurovision Song Contest will take place in Rotterdam on 18 and 20 May, while the final will be held on the evening of 22 May. Samanta Tīna will perform in the second semi-final on 20 May. Latvia last reached the contest final six years ago—in 2015, Aminata achieved this with the song “Love Injected”, earning an honourable sixth place. Aminata is also a co-author of the song “The Moon Is Rising”. Samanta Tīna had participated in Latvia’s Eurovision selection five times before winning the national “Supernova” competition last February with the song “Still Breathing”. For the first time, the winner was determined solely by the viewers’ vote, but because of the coronavirus pandemic, the 2020 Eurovision Song Contest in Rotterdam was cancelled. This year, the contest will be held in the same Dutch city in a somewhat different format, and representatives selected by the participating countries in 2020 may take part, but not with the song that previously won.

“Betsafe” bookmakers have identified Malta and Switzerland as the main favourites in this year’s Eurovision Song Contest. The chances of Malta’s representative Destiny winning are assessed at 22%, while those of Swiss artist Gjon’s Tears are assessed at 20%. Like Samanta Tīna’s song, Destiny’s song “Je Me Casse” also addresses the theme of women’s independence and strength, which has already proved quite convincing in reaching listeners. However, according to the bookmakers, Samanta Tīna’s chances of winning the Eurovision final are not high. “Betsafe” assesses this scenario as having only a 0.7% probability. According to expert estimates, Lithuania has the best chances among the Baltic states—it currently ranks seventh among the favourites, with an approximately 7% chance of winning. Just a couple of weeks ago, when not all the contest songs were known, the eccentric Lithuanian pop-rock group “The Roop” was the clear bookmakers’ favourite.