Habib vs Gaethje: Bookmakers Predict a Fight for the UFC Championship

On the night of 24 October, leading into Sunday, the popular UFC 254 fight show will take place, featuring the undefeated Dagestani lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov and the highly dangerous American fighter Justin Gaethje. This fight is eagerly anticipated around the world, with tremendous interest in whether the MMA superstar Khabib will be able to continue writing his legend in the history of combat sports. Bookmakers’ predictions indicate that Khabib is the favourite for the upcoming fight, although it will most likely not be easy for him to justify this status in the Octagon.

MMA is an extremely complex and demanding sport in which defeats are almost inevitable. Nearly all legends of this combat sport have also suffered losses, as the level of risk in every fight is very high, and it is difficult to guard against every possible attack or technique from an opponent. That is precisely why Khabib Nurmagomedov’s achievement is so impressive: he has won 28 fights in a row without suffering a single defeat. “Betsafe” bookmakers’ predictions indicate that Khabib is a clear favourite in the upcoming fight, with his victory assessed at …% probability, while Gaethje’s chances stand at …%. Bookmakers consider it most likely that the fight will not last too long; specifically, the probability of all five rounds being completed is assessed at …%.

This will be another test for Khabib as he seeks to consolidate his status as a champion in the MMA world. Opposing him will be Justin Gaethje, a 31-year-old American fighter who has secured 22 victories in 24 fights. Gaethje has fought seven times in the UFC, initially suffering two defeats, against Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier. Since then, however, he has recorded four consecutive victories, including the most impressive success of his career. In May this year, Gaethje defeated Tony Ferguson by knockout, once again thwarting fans’ hopes of a Khabib–Ferguson fight and becoming the title challenger.

The fighter representing Russia is the current UFC lightweight champion. He has won all 12 of his UFC fights, including the controversial bout against Conor McGregor, which became particularly memorable because of what happened after the fight, when Khabib and McGregor engaged in heated exchanges with members of their teams. During the fight itself, meanwhile, Khabib once again demonstrated his strength and skill, forcing McGregor to submit with a chokehold. It is therefore no coincidence that Khabib’s greatest strength is considered to be fighting on the ground and grappling, whereas Gaethje rarely attempts to take his opponents down and engage in grappling, although he is highly effective defensively.

“Gaethje’s strongest weapons are his striking and speed; moreover, he is not afraid to attack with kicks and work his opponent’s body with strikes. His aggression and explosiveness are impressive, and Khabib will have to be very wary of his opponent’s strikes. In terms of endurance, it should be noted that Khabib is one of the fighters to have absorbed the fewest strikes in UFC history. This is due not only to his blocking and defence, but also to the fact that he has so far made highly skilful use of the principle that ‘the best defence is offence’. For most of the fight, the legendary Russian fighter puts his opponent in a position where they have to think about something entirely different, so there is no doubt that this fight will be particularly exciting,” comments Betsafe predictions expert Valters Rozmanis.