Can we still expect a snowy Christmas this year? Bookmakers and forecasters reveal the weather forecast for the end of the year

One of the most topical conversation topics at the end of the year has traditionally been whether Christmas will bring a blanket of snow. In recent years, along with rapid climate change, snow has become a rather rare phenomenon in our latitudes, but Latvia’s residents have still not abandoned their hopes of spending the holidays in a white setting with at least a small amount of snow. However, although December began with temperatures falling below 0 degrees, “Betsafe” bookmakers’ forecast indicates that this year, just as last year, snow during the holidays is unlikely.

According to meteorologists’ observations, in Latvia, 2020—with an average air temperature of +9.5 °C, 2.3 °C above normal—is currently the warmest year in the history of observations, surpassing the previous record-holder, the first 11 months of 2019, by 0.8 °C. This year, we experienced the warmest winter and the warmest autumn ever recorded, while air temperatures in spring and summer were also higher than usual. Half of all the months this year rank among the warmest in the history of observations; moreover, by December, 394 daily maximum air-temperature records had already been broken, further reducing hopes for persistent frost and snow. It is expected that this will already be the twelfth Christmas since the beginning of meteorological observations when snow will once again be absent throughout the country.

Over the past 60 years, most Christmases have had a snow cover 1–10 cm thick, while the thickest average snow cover was recorded in 2010 and 1981, reaching 31 and 30 cm, respectively. However, since 1961, there have also been five years when there was no snow anywhere in Latvia during the holidays, while in another five years snow cover was present only in certain areas, averaging less than 1 cm. It can be observed that, although there have been only a couple of years with a thick snow cover in recent times as well, the average thickness of the snow cover at Christmas in Latvia continues to decline. The chances of having a white Christmas are comparatively higher in the Alūksne and Vidzeme uplands, where snowless holidays have occurred only in some years; by contrast, on the Baltic Sea coast, snow cover has been recorded during only slightly more than half of Christmases.

“It is no secret that at Christmas most people want to see at least a small blanket of snow, which enhances the festive feeling and brings more light to this dark period of the year. That is precisely why betting on the weather during the holiday season is an inevitable classic in our daily work. And although winters in recent years have been fairly warm and autumn-like, Latvia’s residents are not ready to give up hope of a white Christmas and New Year. However, bookmakers’ current forecast, with a 75% probability, indicates that on the evening of 24 December there will unfortunately be no snow, at least in the Riga area, and it is highly likely that the New Year will also begin with temperatures above zero,” comments “Betsafe” forecasting expert Valters Rozmanis.

The average air-temperature norm in Latvia at Christmas ranges from −5°C in the far northeast of the country to 0°C on the Baltic Sea coast. This means that wintry weather is generally observed throughout the country during the holidays; nevertheless, air temperatures can vary sharply from year to year—the difference between the minimum and maximum air temperatures observed over the past 57 years is 41.8°C. The warmest Christmas was in 2016, when the air temperature in Kolka reached +10.3°C, while the lowest air temperature, −31.5°C, was recorded in Zosēni in 1996. Since 1961, there have been thaws throughout Latvia during eight Christmases, five of them in the last seven years; by contrast, the most severe frost occurred in 1996 and 1969, when the average air temperature was nowhere above −15°C.

“As the initial weather forecasts for the end of the year indicated, there could be sleet in eastern Latvia on Christmas Eve, but overall, during the next seven days, air temperatures throughout the country will fluctuate between +2°C and +7°C, so persistent snow this year is probably not to be expected. However, the latest Global Forecast System data report that on Christmas Eve, around 6 p.m., temperatures in much of Latvia could nevertheless be around 0 degrees, and even a little snow is possible in Riga, so all hope is not yet lost. After Christmas, colder air masses could move into Latvia, and 1 January 2021 may even bring a slight frost, further reducing the likelihood of above-zero temperatures,” adds Mārtiņš Spuris, weather news presenter for the programme “900 sekundes”.